Tuesday, December 10, 2024

Gadhimai festival.



Gadhimai festival is a Hindu festival held every five years in Nepal at the Gadhimai Temple of Bariyarpur, in Bara District, about 160 kilom etres (99 mi) south of the capital Kathmandu, and about 7 kilometres (4.3 mi) east of the city of Kalaiya, near the Indo-Nepal border. The event involves large-scale  including Water buffalo, pigs, goats, chickens, and pigeons, with the goal of pleasing Gadhimai, the goddess of power. People also make other offerings, including coconuts, sweets, and red-coloured clothes. The festival has been described as the world's largest animal sacrifice event or one of the largest. The  ordered an end to live animal sacrifices in 2019, but the order was "widely ignored".

It is estimated that 250,000-500,000 animals were sacrificed during the Gadhimai festival of 2009. In 2015, it was erroneously reported that Nepal's temple trust planned to cancel all future animal sacrifices at the festival.


History

Millions of people have attended the festival, which began around 1759. It is said that the festival originated when feudal lord Bhagwan Chaudhary dreamed that he could offer a blood sacrifice to the goddess Gadhimai in order to be freed from jail. Animal sacrifice at the festival attracts people from both Nepal and India, while the majority of the sacrificed animals are illegally transported across the border from India into Nepal.

Animal sacrifice

Participants believe that sacrificing animals to the Hindu goddess Gadhimai can end evil and bring prosperity. This has prompted numerous protests by animal rights activists and Nepalese Hindus from Hill region.

In 2009, activists made several attempts to stop the ritual; this included Brigitte Bardot and Maneka Gandhi, who wrote to the Nepalese government, asking it to stop the killings. A government official commented that they would not "interfere in the centuries-old tradition of the people". Ram Bahadur Bomjon, claimed by some of his supporters to be the reincarnation of buddha said that he would attempt to stop the sacrifice at the festival, preaching nonviolence and offering a blessing at the place. His promise prompted the government to send additional forces to prevent any incident. A month before the festival, politicians realized there would be a "severe shortage" of goats for the ritual sacrifice, as well as for the consumption of mutton during the festival. They began a radio campaign urging farmers to sell their animals.

The festival started in the first week of November 2009 and ended in the first week of December (up to Makar Sankranti). Sacrificial animals included white mice, pigeons, roosters, ducks, swine, and male water buffalo. More than 20,000 buffalo were sacrificed on the first day. It is estimated that 250,000 animals were sacrificed during the Gadhimai festival of 2009. The ritual killings were performed by more than two hundred men in a concrete slaughterhouse near the temple. After the festival, the meat, bones, and hides of the animals were sold to companies in India and Nepal.

In October 2014, Gauri Maulekhi (People for animal's Uttarakhand trustee and Human Society International [HSI] consultant) filed a petition against the illegal transportation of animals from India to Nepal for slaughter. After this, the supreme court of India passed an interim order directing the Government of India to prevent animals from being illegally transported across the border for sacrifice at Gadhimai. The court also asked animal protection groups and others to devise an action plan to ensure the court order would be implemented. NG Jayasimha, HSI India representative, visited Nepal to ensure the ban was being adhered to. In an interview with the Times of India he said, "I am very pleased that we were able to sit down with the Nepali politicians, to speak up for the hundreds of thousands of innocent animals who are condemned to an utterly unjustified beheading at Gadhimai. We also spoke directly to the Gadhimai temple and the local magistrate, so they can be in no doubt of the overwhelming call for compassion. We sincerely hope that they will act to stop this unnecessary bloodshed". The Indian Ministry  of home affairs directed the states of Bihar and Uttar Pradesh to monitor and make sure no animals got to Nepal for the festival. It was later reported that 30,000 to 200,000 animals were slaughtered during the 2014 event.

Nepal's temple trust announced the cancellation of all future animal sacrifices at the country's Gadhimai festival in July 2015. The event was also "banned" by HSI India, though this had no legal force.

In 2019, it was reported that the festival took place again, and the sacrifice involved water buffalo, goats, rats, chickens, pigs, and pigeons.

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Tuesday, December 3, 2024

Global recovery is steady but slow and differs by region:

The baseline forecast is for the world economy to continue growing at 3.2 percent during 2024 and 2025, at the same pace as in 2023. A slight acceleration for advanced economies—where growth is expected to rise from 1.6 percent in 2023 to 1.7 percent in 2024 and 1.8 percent in 2025—will be offset by a modest slowdown in emerging market and developing economies from 4.3 percent in 2023 to 4.2 percent in both 2024 and 2025. The forecast for global growth five years from now—at 3.1 percent—is at its lowest in decades. Global inflation is forecast to decline steadily, from 6.8 percent in 2023 to 5.9 percent in 2024 and 4.5 percent in 2025, with advanced economies returning to their inflation targets sooner than emerging market and developing economies. Core inflation is generally projected to decline more gradually.

The global economy has been surprisingly resilient, despite significant central bank interest rate hikes to restore price stability. Chapter 2 explains that changes in mortgage and housing markets over the pracademic decade of low interest rates moderated the near-term impact of policy rate hikes. Chapter 3 focuses on medium-term prospects and shows that the lower predicted growth in output per person stems, notably, from persistent structural frictions preventing capital and labor from moving to productive firms. Chapter 4 further indicates how dimmer prospects for growth in China and other large emerging market economies will weigh on trading partners.

Chapter 1: Global Prospects and Policies:

Economic activity was surprisingly resilient through the global disinflation of 2022–23. As global inflation descended from its mid-2022 peak, economic activity grew steadily, defying warnings of stagflation and global recession. However, the pace of expansion is expected to be low by historical standards and the speed of convergence toward higher living-standards for middle- and lower-income countries has slowed, implying persistent global disparities. With inflationary pressures abating more swiftly than expected in many countries, risks to the global outlook are now broadly balanced compared with last year. Monetary policy should ensure that inflation touches down smoothly. A renewed focus on fiscal consolidation is needed to rebuild room for budgetary maneuver and priority investments, and to ensure debt sustainability. Intensifying supply-enhancing reforms are crucial to increase growth towards the higher pracademics era average and accelerate income convergence. Multilateral cooperation is needed to limit the costs and risks of geoeconomics fragmentation and climate change, speed the transition to green energy, and facilitate debt restructuring.

Chapter 2: 

Feeling the Pinch? Tracing the Effects of Monetary Policy through Housing Markets.

Why are some feeling the pinch from higher rates and not others? Chapter 2 investigates the effects of monetary policy across countries and over time through the lens of mortgage and housing markets. Monetary policy has greater effects where (1) fixed-rate mortgages are not common, (2) home buyers are more leveraged, (3) household debt is high, (4) housing supply is restricted, and (5) house prices are overvalued. These characteristics vary significantly across countries, and thus the effects of monetary policy are strong in some and weak in others. Moreover, recent shifts in mortgage and housing markets may have limited the drag of higher policy rates up to now in several countries. The risk that households may still feel the pinch should be taken seriously where fixed-rate mortgages have short fixation periods, especially if households are heavily indebted.

Chapter 3: 

Slowdown in Global Medium-Term Growth: What Will It Take to Turn the Tide?

The world economy's growth engine is losing steam, prompting questions about its medium-term prospects. Chapter 3 delves into the drivers behind the growth decline and identifies a significant and widespread slowdown in total factor productivity as a key factor, partly driven by increased misallocation of capital and labor between firms within sectors. Demographic pressures and a slowdown in private capital formation further precipitated the growth slowdown. Absent policy action or technological advances, medium-term growth is projected to fall well below pracademic levels. To bolster growth, urgent reforms are necessary to improve resource allocation to productive firms, boost labor force participation, and leverage artificial intelligence for productivity gains. Addressing these issues is critical, given the additional constraints high public debt and geoeconomics fragmentation may impose on future growth.

2025 Recession Risk Factors:

Many factors can trigger or contribute to a recession, but two specific factors are likely the biggest risks to economic stability in 2025.

Inflation

Any investor who hasn't been living under a rock for the past two years is already aware that the primary economic risk factor in 2025 is inflation. After reaching a 40-year high of 9.1% in June 2022, year-over-year consumer price index inflation has fallen to just 2.6% as of October 2024.

The Federal Reserve can celebrate the progress it made in 2024, but the latest core personal consumption expenditures (PCE) price index reading in late October suggests it's too early to declare victory over inflation just yet. Core PCE, which excludes volatile food and energy prices and is the Fed's preferred inflation measure, was up 2.7% year over year in September, above the FOMC's 2% target.

Tariffs

The second economic risk factor in 2025 is tariffs. President-elect Donald Trump has pledged to implement aggressive tariffs on goods imported from China and other U.S. trade partners around the world, making tariffs a central part of his economic plan. Supporters of this tariff strategy say it will help U.S. businesses compete with lower-cost international businesses and encourage American companies to hire American workers. However, critics of the tariff strategy argue the tariffs will force U.S. companies to pay higher prices for imported goods and components, and many of these companies will simply pass on those higher costs to consumers by raising prices. Widespread price hikes could be a nightmare scenario for an economy that is already dealing with elevated inflation.

To make matters worse, the last leg of the inflation battle may be the most difficult period for the Fed thanks to so-called sticky inflation. Sticky inflation is inflation in goods and services that have prices that are not very responsive to monetary policy adjustments, such as children's clothing, auto insurance and medical products. Even as inflation in other areas of the economy continues to fall, sticky inflation may keep the Fed from reaching its inflation target for longer than investors had hoped and force the central bank to slow the pace of its rate cuts.

Preparing for Recessions:

Recessions can be challenging periods, but there are strategic ways for individuals and businesses to brace themselves against economic downturns. One crucial step is strengthening balance sheets to ensure a more resilient financial foundation. A diversified portfolio, including high-quality assets and investments in recession-resistant sectors, can also help protect against volatility.

Keeping informed about economic news, including shifts in fiscal and monetary policies, allows for timely adjustments. On a personal level, maintaining a clear monthly budget and exploring additional income streams can provide stability. For businesses, adopting a proactive risk management strategy, including scenario planning, can be essential. Maintaining a long-term perspective helps weather temporary setbacks and positions both individuals and companies for recovery once the economy rebounds.

How do recessions end?

Central Banks can lower short-term interest rates. This can increase consumer confidence and stimulate spending, as the cost of borrowing is lower, meaning the cost of buying items such as cars and homes is also less.

To keep unemployment at bay, governments can introduce policies such as tax cuts to help consumers, or launch infrastructure programmed, including construction of roads and railways.

Recessions end when growth resumes again, no matter how slowly this happens. During the Great Recession of 2008, for example, pumping trillions into the global economy in an attempt to resuscitate it. Following this unprecedented level of stimulus, markets began to recover, although lingering scars like higher unemployment and lower average income levels remained many years later.

Will There Be a Recession in 2025?

Fortunately, inflation and elevated rates have not yet dragged down the U.S. economy, but investors should continue to monitor the labor market and other economic data in the coming months as tight monetary policy often has a lagging impact on growth.

The U.S. economy added just 12,000 jobs in October, its worst month of jobs growth since December 2020, though that figure was likely skewed lower from the effects of hurricanes and a strike at Boeing Co. (Ticker: BA). The U.S. unemployment rate remained at 4.1%. U.S. GDP growth slowed from 3% in the second quarter to 2.8% in the third quarter of 2024. The latest Federal Reserve economic projections suggest that growth will slow to an annual rate of 2% in 2025.

After spending more than two years inverted, the U.S. Treasury yield curve flipped back to positive territory in the second half of 2024, a positive sign for the economy. U.S. credit card debt stands at an all-time high of more than $1.17 trillion, but delinquency rates on that debt improved from 9.1% to 8.8% in the most recent quarter. Auto loan delinquencies recently hit a 15-year high, another potential red flag investors should monitor to gauge U.S. consumer strength. A 4.1% unemployment rate is not historically high, but it is well above 2023 lows of 3.4%.

Data Trek Research co-founder Nicholas Colas says U.S. searches for "remote work" are at a five-year high, an under-the-radar indication that the economy is healthy in 2025.

"The real 'tell' about the trajectory of the U.S. economy likely lies in American workers' return to the office. If a recession is close, we should see office occupancy turn meaningfully higher as employees trade remote work for job security," Colas says.

The S&P 500 is on track to deliver its second consecutive year of 20%-plus gains as investors cheer earnings growth, Fed rate cuts and Trump's plan to extend the 2017 corporate tax cuts that are set to expire at the end of 2025. However, the New York Fed's recession probability model suggests there is still a 42%Chance of a U.S. recession sometime in the next 12 months.

Bill Adams, chief economist for Comerica Bank, says the economy is in good shape heading into 2025, and Trump's election victory may have his wealthy supporters in the spending mood in the coming year.

"A lot of dudes will be buying new trucks, bigger boats and nicer jets next year. It's hard to put a number on this tailwind for high-end consumer spending, but it will almost certainly be a tangible support to economic growth in 2025," Adams says.

What to Invest in During a Recession

While it's never something to wish for, if a recession does materialize, there are several general strategies investors can take to manage risk and take advantage of opportunities should the U.S. economy falter in 2025.

First, consider reducing exposure to volatile stocks and increasing cash holdings. Cash may not be the most exciting play, but it reduces market risk and provides financial flexibility if a recession creates potential buying opportunities in 2025. In addition, investors can earn more than 4% interest on a one-year certificate of deposit right now, potentially locking in that yield even as the Fed continues cutting rates.

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Tuesday, October 20, 2020

CORONA- VIRUS

Science of the corona virus — why will COVID-19 kill some individuals, however barely have an effect on others?

 

As the bay space and therefore the remainder of the country battens down the hatches within the face of a worldwide pandemic, many of us square measure still inquisitive what specifically COVID-19 is, however dangerous it's and the way possible they're to induce it.
   

The corona virus that causes the sickness has discontinuous the world’s social and economic cloth since it absolutely was initial detected in China last year, forcing colleges and businesses to shut, jaunt be restricted, and diversion, sporting events and every one massive gatherings to be canceled. But what's the science behind this epidemic, and the way distressed ought to we have a tendency to be?  Here square measure some commonly asked queries.

Q1: What square measure the symptoms? However long before symptoms arise?

A : The period of time for the virus is a minimum of 5 days before an individual feels symptoms. It's believed individual’s square measure infectious a minimum of on a daily basis before they feel the consequences. Symptoms will vary, however the most ones square measure fever and cough, and shortness of breath because the unwellness progresses. Individuals with COVID-19 tend to not have liquid nose and sinus congestion or canal problems that always return together with grippe, however they will. Here’s the way to tell the distinction among allergies, respiratory disease and COVID-19. On April twenty seven, the government agency intercalary to its list of doable COVID-19 symptoms, including: chills, recurrent shaking with chills, muscle pain, headache, raw throat and new loss of style or smell. These symptoms may seem 2 to fourteen days once exposure and a study in northern Italia found that eighteen of eighty eight COVID-19 patients, 20.4%, developed rashes. The lesion vary from purple discoloration of the toes to blisters and sometimes hives, typically within the body part space, dermatologists aforementioned. The rashes typically clear up in an exceedingly few days and don't seem to correlate with the severity of the sickness. The fever and metabolic process distress common to the sickness typically begins to enhance once seven days, however in concerning 2 hundredth of the cases, they get a lot of severe, turning into respiratory disease. Common to the important cases is that the onset of acute metabolic process distress syndrome, or ARDS, that is characterized by fluid leaky into the lungs. That's why several victims would like a ventilator to breathe.

Q2: Why will COVID-19 cause serious un wellness in or kill some patients and leave others with delicate or no symptoms?

A: Infectious-disease specialists within the Bay space and across the country World Health Organization square measure learning this development believe the immune systems of some adults, together with young and otherwise healthy individuals, respond to the presence of the virus. There's one thing concerning the virus that apparently confuses the body into offensive healthy cells together with the virus-compromised cells. The out-of-control inflammatory reaction, that specialists decision protein storm syndrome, will injury the lungs, heart and alternative organs, researchers say.

Q3: However deadly is COVID-19?

A: The death rate of COVID-19 is unknown as a result of researchers don’t have reliable information on what number individuals are infected, particularly within the us, wherever solely a tiny low share of individuals are tested. Overall, 6.8% of according COVID-19 patients round the world have died, per figures according on April twenty by the middle for Systems Science and Engineering at Johns Hopkins University. The chances amendment, however, looking on a person’s age. Associate analysis of quite seventy two,000 cases in China found the death rate was fourteen.8% for individuals over age eighty and three.6% for individuals age sixty to sixty nine. It was 0.2% for individuals younger than forty. But those rates square measure influenced by a range of things, together with wherever an individual lives. A study within the us calculable a death rate of 100 percent to twenty seventh for individuals eighty five and over, third-dimensional to Martinmas for individuals sixty five to eighty four and 1 Chronicles to three for patients fifty five to sixty four. The death rate within thus is a smaller amount than 1 Chronicles for individuals younger than age fifty four, per the estimates. Serious and deadly cases seem to be extremely rare in infants and young youngsters, however they need been according youngsters may unfold the virus to others.

Q4: Square measure teenagers less at risk of acquiring the corona virus than older people?

 A: There square measure statistics within thus that indicates young adult’s square measure quite at risk of the virus and sometimes suffers severe symptoms. Associate analysis by the Centers for sickness management and bar of 508 corona virus patients World Health Organization needed hospitalization from February. Twelve to March sixteen found that 2 hundredth of them was between the ages of twenty and forty four. Of the 121 medical care patients, twelve-tone music was therein people.

Q5: However infectious is corona virus, and the way will that compare with alternative diseases?

A: The corona virus and respiratory disease square measure concerning equal in however simply they will be transmitted. Unchecked, everybody World Health Organization gets COVID-19 transmits it to 2 to a few others on the average. Charles Chiu, a UCSF life scientist, aforementioned a lot of testing would facilitate slim down those numbers. The rate of transmission is way below that of contagion. Every case of contagion in associate susceptible population can cause a mean of twelve to eighteen new cases. Alternative infectious diseases, like polio, pox and epidemic roseola, have infection rates of concerning six individuals per case.

Q6: However is that the corona virus transmitted?

A: Droplets of corona virus stay mobile when somebody sneezes or coughs, folks, particles will infect people handy. It's not clear precisely however long the droplets will stay within the air, however one study revealed St Patrick's Day within the geographic region Journal of drugs indicates that SARS-CoV-2, the scientific name for the virus that causes COVID-19, will become suspended in air as associate aerosol for a minimum of 3 hours. Some microbiologists say the aerosol theory is overdone; however associate aerosol kind of corona virus from fecal matter was detected within the loose of patients in metropolis, China. A Center for sickness management bar report says it’s attainable that transmission might occur at distances up to thirteen feet. The virus-infused droplets also can fall on surfaces and infect folks that bit those surfaces, creating it vital to scrub hands oft. it's believed that the virus remains virulent for 2 or 3 days on plastic or metals, like stainless-steel, for up to four hours on copper and for twenty-four hours on surfaces like cardboard.

Q7: Are a unit painkillers safe?

A: Medical examiners have criticized the French health minister for warning corona virus patients to avoid taking painkillers like Motrin and salicylate as a result of they may worsen symptoms by increasing receptors that the virus uses to infect cells. He urged folks to require pain pill instead. Michele Barry, director of the middle for Innovation in world Health at Stanford University, told the big apple Times that there's no knowledge to make a copy that competition. Infectious-disease specialists, in fact, argue that tho' pain pill might scale back fever, the unnaturally lowered body temperatures might inhibit the body’s natural defense against infection.

Q8: However shut area unit scientists to developing a vaccine?

A: Dozens of analysis teams round the world area unit functioning on potential COVID-19 vaccines. Analysisers at the Kaiser Permanente Washington Research Institute in urban center gave the primary injection of associate experimental coronavirus immunogenic March sixteen, in line with the Associated Press. That urban center immunogenic, code-named mRNA-1273, was developed by the National Institutes of Health and Massachusetts biotechnology company Modern. It absolutely was the primary human trial of what consultants believe are going to be an extended series.

Q9: However presently before a immunogenic may be out there to the public?

A: It'll take twelve to eighteen months of studies and testing before a immunogenic may be out there for widespread use, in line with health services and pharmaceutical consultants. Besides its effectiveness in preventing the sickness, scientists conjointly should confirm whether or not the drug causes harmful facet effects, which needs testing of diverse folks.

 Q10: Area unit folks that smoke and vamp at higher risk for COVID-19 infection?

 A: Folks that smoke and vamp could also be at larger risk for serious complications from COVID-19, in line with doctors and public health officers. Here is what you must realize correlation between vamping and smoking of tobacco or marijuana throughout the p.

Q11. Area unit folks that smoke or vamp at higher risk of obtaining the  corona virus?

A: Yes. Corona virus attacks the lungs. Cigarettes and e-cigarettes compromise your system and respiratory organ operate, whereas emotional ultrafine particles, industrial solvents and numerous irritants into your airway that disable the cilia; the little hair-like strands found in your lungs and tract that filter toxins. “That’s your 1st line of defense is pushing the virus out of your body,” said Dr. women's liberationist Glantz, director of center for tobacco management analysis and education at UCSF. “Smoking and vamping compromise that. Once the virus gets down in your lungs you have got this pro-inflammatory state that’s in your system and you can’t fight it off.” Additionally, smoking and vamping need meagre contact, that is one in all the foremost common ways that the sickness is transmitted.

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Gadhimai festival. Gadhimai festival  is a Hindu festival held every five years in Nepal at the Gadhimai   Temple of Bariyarpur, in Bara Dis...